India, by many accounts, will be the fourth-largest economy after surpassing Japan this year and is poised to overtake Germany to become the third-largest in the coming years. Against this impressive backdrop, a critical question arises: will size alone make it a developed nation by the centenary year of its independence in 2047?
Not unless its most impoverished states—especially Bihar—catch up. A Viksit Bharat is impossible without a Viksit Bihar.
India has made significant strides in addressing many of the challenges of the previous century—improving roads, expanding electricity access, and ensuring access to clean water. The country's share in global nominal GDP has tripled from 1.1% in 1991 to 3.4% in 2023. Several estimates, including that of credit ratings agency S&P, suggest that India’s nominal GDP could reach $7 trillion by 2030, up from $3.9 trillion in 2023.
But is it enough?
Transforming from a lower-middle-income economy to a developed one by 2047 is a formidable challenge. Although India is the fastest-growing large economy, it ranks around 140th out of 197 countries in per capita income. To meet the World Bank’s high-income threshold of $13,205, India’s per capita income must grow nearly fivefold, from the current $2,800.
To achieve this, India would require an average annual per capita income growth of 7.5%. The highest on record was 6.3% between 2003 and 2014. At that rate, India would only reach an upper-middle-income level of $10,833—still short of the high-income benchmark.
In a business-as-usual scenario, India may reach $5,000 per capita income by 2030-31 and risk falling into the middle-income trap.
What can be done?
India’s demographic dividend presents a unique opportunity—but only if the country equips its workforce with the right skills. Today, over 86% of workers remain in low-productivity sectors such as agriculture and informal enterprises employing fewer than 20 people.
To unlock this vast potential, India must invest in demand-driven skilling, expand vocational education, and create clear pathways to formal, higher-productivity employment. Growth must be not only rapid but inclusive.
A key engine of inclusive growth is manufacturing, yet its contribution to GDP has stagnated at around 15%. To reverse this, India must double down on improving the ease of doing business, particularly contract enforcement and land/labour reforms.
Labour codes passed at the central level must be implemented uniformly across states. At the same time, successful schemes such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) should be expanded to new sectors. Crucially, the ecosystem must support small firms in scaling up—transitioning from micro to medium and large enterprises to drive productivity and job creation.
India must also pursue structural reforms that enhance national productivity, including sustained investments in core infrastructure—roads, railways, ports, power, clean water, and sanitation—to improve both economic efficiency and quality of life. The country’s urban and industrial infrastructure must keep pace with its growth ambitions.
Despite accounting for 17% of the world’s population, India commands only 2.5% of global exports. Boosting exports through trade facilitation, logistics reform, and diversification into high-value goods is essential for sustainable growth.
Equally important is increasing labour force participation, especially among women. In 2023–24, the overall rate stood at 60.1%, but female participation lagged at just 41.7%. Investing in education, skill development, childcare, and safe, accessible jobs will not only promote gender equity but also boost household incomes and national output.
India must also align growth with sustainability. The transition to a green economy—powered by renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, and low-emission industries—is both an economic opportunity and an environmental imperative. Yet, despite India’s size, it lacks global champions in areas such as banking, consulting, pharmaceuticals, and deep tech. Strategic support for innovation ecosystems and globally competitive sectors is vital.
Finally—and most critically—India must address regional disparities. Economic activity is heavily concentrated: Southern states contribute 30% of GDP, Western states 23%, while Eastern and Central India lag at 12.5% and 13.6%, respectively. The Northeast accounts for just 2.7%.
These disparities are reflected in income, infrastructure, health, and education outcomes. A “rich club” of states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat continues to dominate, while states like Bihar, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh remain mired in poverty. Bridging this divide is not just a matter of equity—it is essential for national progress.
The Bihar challenge
Bihar’s state is undoubtedly abysmal. The state’s per capita income is a mere Rs 60,337 (2024) – barely 33% of India’s national average of Rs 1.84 lakh. Per capita income in Bihar is comparable to sub-Saharan levels, whereas Goa and Sikkim enjoy a high-middle-income status. If Bihar were excluded from national calculations, India’s per capita income would rise by about 5–7%, some analyses suggest.
Literacy or poverty, Bihar is in the last position. On multidimensional poverty, Bihar ranks at the bottom nationally. In various other social and economic indicators, Bihar often lags at the rear end.
This stark disparity underscores the need for targeted regional development. Addressing Bihar’s economic stagnation is not only morally essential but economically strategic. Without uplifting its poorest regions, India’s national ambitions will remain incomplete.
Conclusion
The vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047 is ambitious—and rightly so. But the path is steep, especially in terms of per capita income and inclusive development. Achieving this goal will require sustained and inclusive economic growth, massive investment in human capital and infrastructure, industrial revitalisation, and a laser focus on lagging states, especially Bihar.
India’s rise will be incomplete if it leaves behind its poorest regions. Viksit Bharat must be built not just in Bengaluru and Mumbai, but also in Bhagalpur and Patna. The road to 2047 runs through every village and district—and Bihar may be the most crucial stretch.
Pankaj Lal is a Professor and Director at Montclair State University, New Jersey, USA,and Manvendra Prasadis a public policy advisor.
Edited by Suman Singh
(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of YourStory.)
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